How Could the Pacific Restore International Travel?

With some COVID-19 vaccines now approved and starting to be rolled-out in several countries globally, Papua New Guinea (PNG) and the Pacific Island Countries (PICs) are considering how they can restore international travel with the rest of the world. This report outlines three potential sequential phases of border entry policy in PNG and the PICs:

1. 1. Establishing international travel for cohorts of specific types of travelers;
   2. COVID-19 safe travel corridors;
   3. A ‘new normal’ – which could involve some combination of:
      • widely available vaccine(s) or treatment;
      • accurate, rapiddiagnostic and antibody testing; and
      • fit-for-purpose tracing and health-surveillance capacity.

International arrivals to PNG and the PICs would not recover in any meaningful way until the second phase, which is unlikely to take shape until at least mid-2021. However, relaxing strict border entry policies will not be sufficient to catalyze the recovery. Working with the private sector, governments will have a key role to play in avoiding and resolving coordination failures—particularly in the travel and tourism sectors. Furthermore, over the coming months the nature of public support will need to shift from emergency relief to strategic measures to lay the foundations for a structural economic recovery, while continuing to support livelihoods and vulnerable households. Further work is needed to determine: (i) how regional governments can help restore traveler confidence on the demand side; and (ii) to what extent business hibernation should remain a key strategy in PNG and the PICs, considering that international arrivals may remain subdued for at least another nine months, and perhaps far longer. The situation remains very fluid, and rapidly changing conditions (such as the second waves of COVID-19 infections in Australia) could delay or alter the specific details outlined in this report—although the broad themes are expected to remain applicable.